COVID-19 is on the rise again in Alabama, though numbers are nowhere close to the winter or fall surges.
From the first week of April to the second week of May, daily case counts nearly tripled — going from just over 100 cases per day to now just over 300 cases per day in the state. And the number is likely higher as it doesn’t include those who test positive at home and don’t seek medical treatment
When the Omicron variant was at its peak impact earlier this year, Alabama saw between 12,000 and 17,000 cases per day; overall percent positivity of cases was over 45%. The moving seven-day percentage of positive cases was 7.8%, as of May 13.
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“We understand that because of the availability of home tests, that might be an underreported number, but that’s the information that we have,” the Alabama Department of Public Health’s Dr. Wes Stubblefield said.
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As to what could be causing the steady increase, there are several theories in the medical community.
“We know that BA.2 accounts for the majority of the specimens that we’re currently typing, according to the CDC, and that’s different from the original Omicron,” Stubblefield said. “Plus, the Omicron spike happened three to four months ago, and so that immunity that was gained from the Omicron wave that happened is probably starting to deteriorate in some people.”
A general lack of masking in the state could also be a contributor to the rising case numbers.
Still, hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 have not increased in months in Alabama. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients remain around 60 per day, and the number of deaths is much lower. The current average is four deaths per day, while in February, that number got up to 52.
“Although, those are usually later indicators. Usually, cases go up before we start seeing hospitalizations and deaths,” Stubblefield said.
The current rise in case numbers does not necessarily mean a major surge is coming. Stubblefield said there is no definitive way of predicting something like that, and Alabama has seen similar increases in case numbers that did not develop into significant surges in the past. One example was around this time last summer.
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“Nobody really knows at this point,” Stubblefield said. “The protective factors are that we have a relatively high percent of the population that’s either been vaccinated or infected based on blood bank studies.”
Alabama residents are 51% fully vaccinated, and 63% of the state has received at least one dose. Both percentages are among the lowest in the country, and Stubblefield said new people initiating the vaccination process in the state are few and infrequent.
“What we keep reiterating is that COVID has never gone away. It probably will never go away. There will be, probably, the ups and downs and the number of cases,” he said. “Even though we’re concerned that some of these subvariants may be able to escape the immunity, either from vaccine-induced immunity or from infection-induced immunity, they still do a great job at protecting against severe disease hospitalization and death.”
Those looking to locate a COVID-19 testing site or vaccination site can visit alabamaunites.com.
Hadley Hitson covers the rural South for the Montgomery Advertiser and Report for America. She can be reached at hhitson@gannett.com.
